Hey, my cottage people! Was that not the longest f*&$ing winter of all time? I‘ve officially emerged from my listing-season hibernation to actually sit down and look at what the data is telling us about the spring and summer waterfront market. We are well into June, the boats are out, and the market is doing exactly what markets do: act very, wonderfully complicated ;)

I’m going to break down what happened this spring across Muskoka, Georgian Bay, Simcoe, Haliburton, the Peterborough and the Kawarthas&beds=0&baths=0&min=0&max=100000000&map=0&quick=1&submit=Search" title="Search Properties in Kawarthas">Kawarthas and Peterborough counties - and my prediction for what the summer holds. As always, I’m pulling hard data from our regional real estate boards, Royal LePage’s Spring Recreational Property Report, plus a few sources that have been tracking the cottage market more granularly than anyone else right now. Rounded out with my own first hand experience and always humble opinions ;)

Big Picture: Buyers Are Still In The Drivers Seat (For Now)

Let me start with the national context before I get regional.

Royal LePage’s 2026 Spring Recreational Property Reports forecasts the median price of a single-family home in Canada’s recreational regions will increase by 4% in 2026 to $560,552 - which sounds downright rosy! But when you zoom into Ontario, the story is more nuanced. The median price of a single-family home in Ontario’s recreational regions is forecast to increase by a more modest two percent to $643,722 - well below the national average - and in 2025, the median price of single-family waterfront property actually decreased by 5% to $809,900

SO: nationally, cottage prices are holding up. In Ontario specifically, waterfront took another dip last year and we’re still looking at a slow recovery rather than a bounce back. However, limited supply will continue to keep prices from falling further. My CEO Phil Soper said it perfectly: “New developments in these regions remain relatively rare, and many property are tightly held by families for generations. This scarcity preserves the exclusivity of these markets and provides price stability, even when buyers are feeling cautious.”

I couldn’t agree more, and this nuance gets lost in the doom-and-gloom headlines. There are only so many good lakes, and they’re not making more of them.

What Actually Happened This Spring: Tariff’s Put A Chill On The Market

Here’s the thing noody wanted to say out loud: Canadian MLS data showed a double-digit surge of new listings in January 2025 alongside a noticeable slowdown in sales, most of it concentrated in the final week of January as the tarrif discussions intensified. Home sales fell 3.3% month-over-month while new listings jumped at 11%, the largest seasonally adjusted monthly supply increase since the 1980’s! This resulted in a terrible hangover that lasted into 2026…

A sharp drop in economic visibility through Feb 2026 visibly slowed discretionary buyer activity, and waterfront is nothing if not discretionary. Further cooled by a never ending slog of winter weather (I can’t remember a colder May 24 weekend!), the spring market showed up late and tentatively. An unpredictable economic outlook ends to make buyers more hesitant in markets under $5M and the ”wealth effect” matters a ton here - peole have to feel financially comfortable that they can swing it.

That said, I want to be careful not to catastrophize here - this is an ongoing pattern in sustained correction, NOT a market in free fall. For buyers with patience, conditions are the best they’ve been since before the pandemic (I just firmed up on a cottage purchase for buyers who have been looking diligently since 2021, and they crushed it!). For sellers, the path to a sale is there but it runs through realistic pricing - not blind optimism.

Muskoka: Ontario’s Prestige Market Corrects, Then Holds

Muskoka has had a genuinely rough few quarters relatively to its own recent history. In the first quarter of 2026, waterfront cottage sales fell again by 12% (22 sales in three months with properties sitting on the market for an average of 95 days. That meant alot of supply - and a lot of patience required on the sellers side - the highest number of months of inventory on hand. Buyers were taking their time, seeing many properties and negotiating with a sale-to-list ration of 94%: proof that sellers who are pricing in line with the current market are selling.

The real headline is the stickiness to which sellers are clinging to 2021/2022 values. Local realtors are seeing stagnation in over-priced properties and inflating the overall days on market.

The silver lining: The Big Three (Joseph, Rousseau and Muskoka) are expected to remain comparatively stable du to deeper demand and more consistent liquidity, and the current sale-to-list ratio sits around 93.5-94%, giving buyers room to negotiate 6-7% off asking prices…except in the case of those ”Unicorn” properties.

So what moves in Muskoka right now? Turn-key, winterized, South-NW facing proeprties sell quickly, while dated or three-season cottages sit longer unless they’re priced sharply. This is true in my home market too - not many people are looking for a Project Cottage right now.

Peterborough and The Peterborough and the Kawarthas&beds=0&baths=0&min=0&max=100000000&map=0&quick=1&submit=Search" title="Search Properties in Kawarthas">Kawarthas: The Quiet Performer Next Door

While eyes are on the Muskoka‘s, this market just keeps chugging along! PTBO and the Peterborough and the Kawarthas&beds=0&baths=0&min=0&max=100000000&map=0&quick=1&submit=Search" title="Search Properties in Kawarthas">Kawarthas are now being described as the preferred choice for the hybrid worker - with improved high speed internet and a shorter commute to the GTA, this region was less affected by the post-pandemic downturn and has been seeing some of the highest transaction volume in the province among recreational markets! CLAR president Christine Riley noted that “The long-term economic drivers across our communities - including major infrastructure and energy investments - positions us well for sustained demand.”

This tracks with what I’m seeing on the ground. In Kawartha Lakes, CLAR data thru early 2026 shows the market through changing conditions, with pricing trends varying by region and inventory levels rising across. Recent KL data shows an average house price around $686,000 with a median of 34 days on market - considerably tighter than Muskoka’s 95 day average. The Kawartha’s continues to offer relative value and that price gap is driving buyers eastward.

Haliburton & Simcoe Counties: Steady As She Goes

Haliburotn continues to be one of the best kept secrets in cottage country - beautiful, clean lakes, a strong arts community, and prices that still offer real entry points for families who are priced out of the Muskoka’s. The market has followed the broader regional trend: more inventory, longer days on market, leaving buyers with more options they haven’t had since 2019.

Simcoe County and Georgian Bay are similarly patient markets right now, with the waterfront segment feeling the same softness since the tariffs made everyone more cautious. That said, this areas have historically punched back quickly as soon as confidence returns.

The Wild Card We’re Not Talking About Enough

Canadians are coming home.

A wave of homeowners have been retreating from their US vacation properties, listing homes in historically popular winter getaways like Florida and AZ. Many reference not just the economic pressures but growing discomfort with the political climate. It doesn’t help that the weaker Canadian dollar and rising US carrying costs are making every penny count.

Royal LePage reports that 40% of experts in the recreational market have noted an increase in domestic buyers reinvesting in proceeds from US property sales into Canadian real estate - ok, that gives me the warm and fuzzies. This is a boon for Ontario cottage country and we haven’t even had time for it to fully show up in the transaction data yet. When it does, the regions that offer clear value (like Georgian Bay, Peterborough, Peterborough and the Kawarthas&beds=0&baths=0&min=0&max=100000000&map=0&quick=1&submit=Search" title="Search Properties in Kawarthas">Kawarthas and Haliburton) are going to feel it first.

My Prediction for Summer 2026

My take, as someone who has been following waterfront my whole life and selling it for almost 10 years now:

Sellers - Inventory is relatively high compared to recent history and here’s the tough love: the buyers who are out here are informed, they’re patient, and they’re negotiating. It dosn’t mean you can’t sell well, it means the path to a great sale runs through honest pricing, a great presentation and working with someone who knows your lake.

Buyers - this is legit one of the best entry windows in 6 years. Inventory is at a 10 year high, many lockdown buyers are exiting and negotiating room exists across most price ranges. The one caveat is that no algorithm can fully appreciate the nuance of waterfront living - shoreline quailty, privacy and exposure still drive demand and the final sale price.

If a property is priced right, with a great view and quality waterfront, it will still sell quickly and close to the asking price. The market hasn’t forgotten what a good cottage looks like. It’s just gotten alot better and refusing to overpay for it :)

As always, happy to answer any questions about specific lakes, regions, or what the data looks like in your community! I work across all these markets and I love a good ol’ fashioned conversation.